Bog Roll ::

It's Not Magic, It's Work!

01 Jan 2007

Predictions for 2007

Linux and Open Source

Linux and open source will continue it's inexorable march. This will not be the mystical year of the "Linux Desktop" anymore than the past or future years. Linux will continue to grow in the server room at the expense of mostly Unix systems but also Windows, in the embedded sector such as mobile phones it will continue to displace older proprietary operating systems and it will increase in market share on desktop systems - though there won't be a "breakthrough".

Firefox will continue to expand it's market share, it has already displaced IE in some markets as the dominant browser and it will do in even more. Short of fixing IE properly Microsoft are stuck with an old and insecure code-base that is expensive to maintain and very incompatible with the standards. If they fix the browser properly it will be secure but at the expense of breaking all the badly written sites they have encouraged people to write.

In general open source will continue to grow because it is cheaper to develop than close source development models. Existing closed source development will adopt all the best practices off open-source and there will always be a market for closed source software, but it will gradually become a niche area.


Predictions for 2007

Microsoft

There will be no feeding frenzy over the release of Microsoft Windows Vista. Just like XP and 2000 before it, it is better than what it replaced, but is also more resource greedy, slower, just as insecure and buggy and only a marginal improvement. It will come on all new PCs once they have the drivers fixed and companies will gradually start to upgrade towards the end of the year and into 2008.

The DRM in the Zune, XBox360 and Vista will be cracked. For those who care it will be trivial to defeat, for the rest of the Microsoft sheep it will be a pain in the posterior.

The Zune will be a huge commercial failure. It will destroy Microsoft's "Plays For Sure" partners but it will not dislodge the iconic Apple iPod. Like the XBox before, the second version may be a lot better, assuming the bean counters at the Vole-hill are willing to waste even more money in pursuit of another unnecessary market.

Microsoft shareholder may start to get twitchy with the current leadership at Vole-central and some heads may start to roll. If not the company will continue to milk it's ill-gotten monopoly and will continue to stagnate and continue to hold the whole PC industry back.