Bog Roll ::

It's Not Magic, It's Work!

01 Jan 2009

2009 Predictions

I didn't do predictions for 2008 but I did for 2007: Linux and Microsoft. Looking at them know it looks like I was on the money - indeed you could say I was actually more optimistic about Microsoft that reality proved for them.

Here are some predictions for the year(s) ahead. Two positive ones and two negative ones (depending on your point of view:

  1. The Mac will continue to grow in market share - even during a recession (point 3). Macs are UNIX based, with lower hardware complexity than Windows and Linux and so mostly just work. While Apple don't compete at the bottom of the market sector they are clearly the best options in the middle and upper end where a modern Mac can run OS X, Windows and Linux at the same time.
  2. Linux will continue to devour UNIX in the server space and eat into the Windows space as the recession drives people to systems with a total lower cost of ownership. Linux will emerge as the king of the server space because it's like UNIX but cheaper, runs on the same cheap hardware as Windows and is good at virtualisation. Linux will also do well everywhere else - except the desktop where it will continue to grow but still slowly and from a small base.
  3. The world will go into one almighty recession. Countries like the UK with no real economy and a mountain range of debt will suffer especially badly as the great deleveraging continues. One bright point will be the fall in house prices back towards a more sustainable level, i.e. three times gross salary and no more than an 80% mortgage.
  4. Microsoft will continue to writhe around making stupid decisions and lashing out at competitors and allies alike. Thankfully for Microsoft shareholders' they didn't buy Yahoo! but more stupid and self-destructive plans will hatch this year. Windows Vista will continue to be hated and Windows 7 will be rushed and just as unpopular. Microsoft may eventually get with it and stop being stupid but I somehow fear not...

2009

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

I started last year with a list of aims. I managed a few and failed on the rest.

  • I know have a new home server. The old Compaq was recycled too
  • Home server is running Debian Lenny as is my father's new system
  • Backup solution in place using rsnapshot to local disks and external disks
  • My web sites redesigned and my intranet moved over to ikwiki. No new blogging solution in place though
  • I scanned in about 10 slide before I gave up - not good...
  • I've not won a million on the Premium Bonds - in fact with falling interest rates I've not won much at all!

2009

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

I started last year with a list of aims. I managed a few and failed on the rest.

  • I know have a new home server. The old Compaq was recycled too
  • Home server is running Debian Lenny as is my father's new system
  • Backup solution in place using rsnapshot to local disks and external disks
  • My web sites redesigned and my intranet moved over to ikwiki. No new blogging solution in place though
  • I scanned in about 10 slide before I gave up - not good...
  • I've not won a million on the Premium Bonds - in fact with falling interest rates I've not won much at all!