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It's Not Magic, It's Work!

28 Jun 2016

Brexit Mess

There are three ways out of the self-imposed Brexit mess than the UK can take...

We can go cap in hand to the EU and say it was all a silly wheeze we played and we want to stay. Not likely if one of the Brexit loonies becomes our next PM, but still possible. We can expect the EU to ask us to surrender some of our special deals that no one else has though. It would be a political climb down on an epic proportion, but the referendum has no legal standing and technically parliament can ignore or it as is, or call a general election and say that trumps it and it's up to the next parliament to decide.

Option two is a bit of slight of hand. We leave the EU officially, so the Brexit loonies can claim something but we actually go straight back in all but name as Norway does in the EEA. On the practical level nothing much would actually change but we would lose all our say in how things get done, would still be subject to most EU rules and probably have to sign up to more rules than we do already. Personally I'd be happy with that, but long term is a stupid position to be in, and we'd be worse off in every way that Brexit camp claimed we'd be better off - which is ironic...

The final option is that we really come out of the EU and the EEA. In that case we can expect to see a weaker pound, slower growth, poor exports and a generally basket case economy for decades to come, Not a nice prospect for anyone...

Of the three, staying in the best option, it maximises our benefit and democratic power and while we will have to pay some kind of penalty for the chaos we've caused it would be the better long term option. The Norway option is tolerable, would minimise the damage of leaving the EU, but reduces our influence and democratic power, and we would have to pay a heavy price for it, even being forced to join Schengen - which I'd like but a lot of Brexiters would have fits over... The final solution is obviously absurd and is the path to economic ruin and I assume most of the Brexiters that can think are trying to avoid this, without having to admit that they were wrong.

What will happen? Who knows, but it isn't going to be nice and I'm not looking forward to the next few years....