Bog Roll ::

It's Not Magic, It's Work!

13 Mar 2019

Brexit II

So the Maybot has lost another vote by a huge margin. What happens next? Who knows? The reality is that there are actually only three options, and two of them have problems...

The UK can go for WTO only with or without a transition deal. The problem with that is that it will break the Good Friday Agreement, which has kept the piece in Ireland. To keep the boarder open requires a deal of some sorts and the hard right Tories don't want a deal. May's deal has been rejected so leaving without a deal is possible but it will create a boarder in Ireland and cause chaos in the UK.

The UK could adopt a so called soft Brexit, like the Norway option. That basically means that the UK would not have any say but still be subject to most EU rules. It would work and solve the Ireland problem, but would be a pointless exercise, and is demonstrably worse than the deal the UK currently has. The Tory hard right don't like it because EU anti-money laundering rules would still apply...

Finally there is the option to revoke Article 50, and stay in the EU, though there would be much apologising to do, and much of damage that has already been done, will take a long time to recover, if ever.

The basic problem is that the referendum was stupid, it asked a question where one option was undeliverable without breaking the Good Friday Agreement or was leaving in name only.... Then there was the illegal activity by the leave campaigns, the foreign interference, the vote rigging and other irregularities... and only because it was non-binding it can't be struck down...

Not a lot has changed since I said the same in 2016: Brexit Mess.